Brazil On Elections

Democracy sometimes takes people by surprise how is surpasses its own principles and converts a people led government into a totalitarian anarchy. The power is democracy is seldom heard without the onset and control of corruption, unemployment, nepotism and many similar shortcomings. However the Lula da Lula government in Brazil is a staggering example of a sufficient and a successful democratic government. Eight years hence he is stepping down from his thrown not because the people have chosen so but because there is no clause within the constitution that can help his stay elected any further. With the first week of October gearing up Brazil one of biggest economies, a part of the BRIC goes to polls on 3rd October.

On the table we have a Lula’s Representative Dilma Rousseff contesting and on the stake is the government of Brazil. Brazil has become one of the most talked about nation in the past decade. Apart from being called as part of the most promising economy of the future it was one of the last to have gone in to recession and one of the first to come out. With the recent finding of the coast of Brazil large amount of oil reserves it seems soon the country can become the power house of the world. However recent claims regarding the faulty Macondo British petroleum disaster all eyes are right now pinned how would this country fair in the future.

Till now the prospects of the country has been beautiful. Lula had run an efficient government when the entire economy was plagued with corruption and mal practices. His entire eight year period composed of tightening of the government control over the life of poor individual. He tried to provide them with a standard living and pull them out of the vicious circle of poverty. Today there are more than twenty million people who have emerged making Brazil more of middle class economy. People today have high self esteem, global recognition, strong financial policies, an apt export driven economy and education facilities. But following the change of power people are speculating on what would be the new.

The current sentiments of the people completely lie with Dilma Rousseff who was selected by Lula himself. She was his Secretary of State. There have been many negative reports doing round regarding her association with some influence peddling scams but most of it has not been proved or dismantled over Lula’s credibility. She on the hand faces an interesting term if she will be elected. Lula had controlled much of the poverty that has attracted a lot of foreign investors into the country. As a result today Dilma faces much different challenges than her guardian. There is an outburst of foreign money in Brazil and scope of multi faceted development.

For the start she has to get off Lula’s cover. People today in Brazil relate to her through Lula. Hence it would be important for her to take to create her own image before taking a stand. Apart from that as said corruption is an important part of a democratic economy. Brazil is no different. Lula has devised a number of measures which strengthened the grip of the government on the corruption but in his absence how much liable the measures would be no one knows. With the current trend of the over dependence of Dilma on Lula things may not go correct.

It is not in my saying that Dilma may be inefficient but circumstantially she has to come out with Lula and speak. Recent trend in the foreign policy of Brazil has been quiet complicated. Brazil does not see an eye to the United States on several issues. The seat at Brazil hold a firm government in the Western Hemisphere but its recent support to the Honduras President who was removed with American intervention does not take Brazil to the America’s good books. Added to this Lula was also accused of having a particular dangerous inclination towards Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the Iranian president. It was only a few months back when a cover over a secret meeting was blown off where in the domestic nuclear capability and support of Iran was discussed between Brazil, turkey and Iran. Following the coup in Ecuador there is going to be lot of heated discussion on how would Brazil react. It may not be in the direct league of Chavez but definitely does not believe in American strategies as well.

Thus we come to conclude by asking whether Dilma would fare the situation or not. The recent findings of the oil have been put to an investment of 67 USD with a company called Petrobars. Post the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico the government has decided to take care of most of the activities by their out. Public share were recently released. However with democracy comes corruption. With huge amount of money on stake how would the government be liable to all this is a question the future will tell? Before the election we can only judge by the sentiments. With so much public money, foreign investment and a proposed oil power house of the world involved we need measures and a public opinion that could take the legacy that has been going in Brazil for the past eight years. It worked before, it might work again.

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Sudan in for split up.

If more or less the bearings move fine we might end up with a new nation next year as the Sudanese Empire would split up into a northern and a southern part. The news comes into light post a referendum that was released after a peace agreement was reached to end the bloody civil war that ate up the country from 1983 to 2005. Signed in 2005 between Omar al- Bashir the dictatorial ruler of the North Sudan and Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/ Army (SPLM/A) it was decided by the Northern government to give up the control of the Southern part if a majority of the southern origin opt out to .

The history of Sudan has been written more or less in blood with a civil war going on right since it got itself independence from an Egyptian rule in 1956. Two simultaneous civil wars have since then plagued the country and left the public in much of scarce. Added to this the country has also sought much pains in territorial conflicts with neighbouring countries of Kenya and Uganda. International perception of Sudan has deteriorated more or less because of President Omar al- Bashir who has been Sudanese head since 1989 and practiced the worst kind of atrocities over there. He is famously known to have negotiated the referendum of whose outcome would the world is eagerly waiting for.

Omar al-Bashir led a blood fight military coup in 1989 when the government was severed and he rose to power. Following the coup the Sudan has participated in repetitive genocides and rampant atrocities due to which it has been named as a troubled state by the United States. Sudan was declared meanwhile a totalitarian Arabic Islam state irrespective of a Christian minority which are a part of Southern Sudan. Interesting Omar al- Bashir is supposed to be the first state head to have ever been issued a warrant in the International Court of Justice for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Darfur, another troubled region in West Sudan. However his negotiation over the referendum seems a little out of place. As the deadly civil war swept through eating most of what was Southern Sudan al- Bashir negotiated an agreement according to which an election in 2011 January would decide if the Southern Sudan would accede its independence.

The agreement was between the President and SPLM, a separatist rebel group which was given a part after 2005 to run the Southern Sudan under the reign of al- Bashir before till it reaches independence. The referendum was an intelligent step at that time but today with the international media it poses a huge threat to the division of the state. In speech it might be a lot easier to scrap of a piece of land and divide a map into two but in reality there are a number of factors attached to it. Southern Sudan was more or less a provincial Christian dominated region. However constant wars and refugee resettlements over decade has dissolved the old definition of the south. The area has transformed more or less in to a nomadic region of refugees with no proper financial, cultural and situational control. Out of the eight million people who go for voting including the southern settlers in the north five million people are parts of the nomadic tribes. Economically Sudan speaks for itself. Its per capita income lies somewhere close to 1.24 USD per day. In the south some 85% of the people cannot write and it has the world’s largest mortality rates. Most of the population is still dependent on American dropped refugee food packages for survival.

The referendum has seriously opened a number of opportunities for the Southern Sudanese to develop but is simultaneously posing a number of excruciating problems. The division would mean division of debt and all standing assets. Being in the backyard till now, it would be an outstanding moment for the South Sudanese but not for long. The weakness in education is surely going to show signs. However the North part is going to lose more. The Northern Sudan thrived over the oil assets of Sudan and the division would mean a division of all assets. This would cut out the North from a substantial amount of financial assets.

Henceforth the referendum is fiction till a proper voting takes place. Post the independence years it was in 2010 when the first time an elected parliament of Omar al- Bashir formed. Even though it was charged with practicing fraudulent methods during elections, the outcome was accepted. Following continued pressure from US and UNO an election was announced in January with requirement initially 75% but later reduced to 60% for succession into a new state. The North is going to lose more once the division takes place. Sudanese government has already made a heap of enemies all around and ripping of its resources would increase its vulnerability. How the South would cope if ever it is minted into a new state the future would tell. Till that time everyone is wondering whether this is mere eyewash or al-Bashir has finally come to his senses.

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